Sarah Palin
By far the best analysis of the current status of this years presidential election and Sarah Palin’s place in it comes from this comment at Irrational Optimism left by Utah Amicus‘ CraigJ:
Thanks for the interesting post.
No doubt she will be very popular with the moral-majority types. Her Coulteresque framing of the issues is clearly designed to shore up the Republican’s bread-and-butter base - give them something to be excited about. Now it will be up to McCain to go after the independents as a “maverick” who will shake up Washington. Can he deliver?
Obama and Biden already have an energized base of support because the core of the Democratic party is so sick of the Bush administration. Palin can’t functionally irritate the D’s any more than they already are so it makes perfect sense to just let her go bananas on Obama to garner support from her home team - as she did. The only risk for the R’s is that Obama may highlight Palin’s bulldog comments in their fundraising pieces.
As for the D’s play to the independents, Obama and Biden will probably keep the message focused on the failures of Bush/Cheney and demonstrate that McCain/Palin doesn’t offer anything new.
So…
McCain - “Maverick” play to I’s
Palin - Shore up R’s base
Obama/Biden - Unrelenting play to I’s in battleground states (like Colorado and Iowa).
Going after Palin will do nothing but energize the R base even more, hence Obama’s call to let it go. This won’t stop some astute D’s from venting - similar to the way you share your frustrations on your blog on occasion.
In the end it really comes down to McCain vs. Obama/Biden on the persuasion front. Palin will be a GOTV machine. Obama has an unprecedented grass-roots organization using the Internet that will bolster their GOTV efforts. Thanks Al Gore
I predict this is what we will see all the way through Nov. 4th.
Thank you Craig!
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Thanks Jeremy. I look forward to hearing your insights as the campaign season moves forward.
Comment by CraigJ — September 4, 2008 @ 4:42 pm
I enjoy your commentary and would be interested in your take on Sarah Palin in more detail. I am absolutely fascinated by her role and emergence. Since I’ve been paying attention to politics, I haven’t seen anything like it. I’m going to put up a post in a little while, arguing that she is a game changer — in a cultural, as well as a political, sense.
We’ll see how it all plays out, but I’m optimistic that — through the hard fought battle of a campaign — the voice of Americans will be heard that we absolutely are not happy with the way our governing class is running the country.
Comment by Steve Urquhart — September 4, 2008 @ 4:58 pm
It’s not just the base that Gov Palin brings.
It’s partly because since the moment she was announced, Community Organizer Obama has been running against her instead of McCain.
It’s partly because it’s tapping into the same misogyny on display during the Democratic primary. Hillary supporters are pissed at how Gov Palin has been treated, even if they don’t like her policies themselves.
It’s also because the campaign had recently begun to focus on middle america, and who is more in touch with the “average American.” Gov Palin is “average American”. How many houses does she have? Any communist/USofKKKA/Pentagon bombers in her background?
And she’s going to completely destroy Biden in the debates.
Comment by Cameron — September 4, 2008 @ 5:35 pm
Steve - Thanks. Say hi to Greg at convention for me. You should live-blog or post a mobile photo or something.
Cameron - While I doubt anyone could “completely destroy” Biden in a debate, I imagine Palin will do her homework and present the party’s arguments effectively. She can also be the beneficiary of lower expectations - a “hockey mom” vs. a veteran U.S. Senator…it’s the kind of NCAA-tournament matchup that makes for great television. All that said, though, energizing conservative populists doesn’t exactly carry over to firing up - especially to the point of persuading - moderate and liberal populists. I just don’t see it. If strategists wanted her to engender herself to the center (or even center-left) mainstream, they wouldn’t have had her unleash last night’s biting, icy discourse. In fact, I don’t think they would have picked her at all.
Things can change but I suspect that appealing to the middle will be John McCain’s A1 campaign task.
Comment by CraigJ — September 4, 2008 @ 6:26 pm
CraigJ isn’t giving Palin enough love. Somehow McCain made a brilliant pick. Just read this report from Rasmussen. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain Palin is more likely that McCain and Obama and picking her made people think better of McCain. She didn’t seem like a strong pick at the time, but she is.
How strong of pick was she, she is scaring the D’s enough that they gave $8m after she spoke: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Palin_raising_for_Obama_.html?showall
Palin seems to be able to attack Obama and appeal to the center. That’s pretty impressive. Sure she fires up the right (and the left), but her approval numbers are impressive.
If McCain wins, we will look back and she the turning point as McCain picking Palin and her speech.
Comment by Daniel — September 5, 2008 @ 9:58 am
SteveU,
You say
Unfortunately, too many people are fascinated by her emergence. I have seen something like it, and in fact, fairly recently. His name is Barack Obama.
I will be disappointed if Palin’s emergence causes people to vote for a snake.
Comment by Frank Staheli — September 5, 2008 @ 11:30 am
I don’t know if McCain is a snake. That implies a level of intelligence that I’m not sure he possesses. Obama, on the other hand, is definitely a snake.
Comment by Hosteen Tom — September 5, 2008 @ 1:43 pm
It has been years since the Republicans had a politician they actually wanted to hear from. McCain doesn’t cut the mustard, he’s been in Washington too long and as “Hosteen Tom” says, he’s not that bright. W. is an embarrassment every time he opens his mouth…and before W they had Bob Dole and George HW. Frank’s idea that Gov. Palin is the Republican version of Sen. Obama, a fresh new politician the true believers enjoy listening to and are inspired by makes perfect sense.
I think the exuberance over Gov. Palin will be short-lived. She’s only the VP candidate and she’s paired up with a real loser who can accurately be blamed for many of the Bush policies now damaging our nation because he supported them. Palin may be an authentic conservative in the vein of R. Reagan but you don’t get her as VP without putting a real dog in the White House. She is entertaining and she makes this year’s campaign vastly more interesting but she still doesn’t get me to endorse or vote for John McCain.
Comment by Jeremy Manning — September 5, 2008 @ 2:35 pm
I’m actually puzzled as to why McCain didn’t pick somebody positioned more towards the center of the conservative/liberal scale to try to win more swing votes, as it is obvious that Obama is quite on the liberal end of things…
Maybe he saw it as more important to select a party unifier, seeing many Republicans/conservatives feeling betrayed.
…interesting…
Comment by cody — September 5, 2008 @ 4:47 pm
I’m not sure that Palin isn’t seen as attractive to the swing voters. The latest Gullup daily tracking poll has McCain now up by 3 points http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx and up by 10 points among likely voters: http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/mccain-pulls-ah.html
Apparently Pain is appealing to people in the middle (or maybe McCain is not appealing to people in the middle).
Comment by Daniel — September 7, 2008 @ 10:38 pm
I love that phrase, “go bananas on Obama.”
the thing I find funny about all this, is now it’s on both sides… the absolute worst, the most witty rhetoric, the most scalding burns, are coming from both sides now. Both sides are feeling the heat! That’s the way, my friends, that it is supposed to be. I’m all for Barack, but who wants to win an easy race? Seriously.
Good quote. And, I think, an accurate analysis of the situation. I will admit, I liked McCain’s speech. I like it when he feels safe to be the maverick that (I hope) he really is… I meld much better with his rhetoric when he’s being mr. straight talk.
Comment by nosurfgirl — September 9, 2008 @ 12:11 pm
I personally have been really enjoying John Stewart’s take on the issue of Sarah Palins vice presidential nomination. You all need to take a look at my favorite piece of political news I have seen since this whole Presidential race started. Watch here http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=184086&title=Sarah-Palin-Gender-Card
Comment by Dignin — September 10, 2008 @ 8:45 am
That was the best comment? I thought it entirely superficial analysis, and undoubtedly deliberately so–whistling past the graveyard. Sure, Palin energized the Republican base, but why? The answer to that is why so many Crats have absolutely lost their minds.
Authenticity.
Democrats put up fakers and frauds for our consideration and wonder why they can’t seem to put away an old man. How can McCain, a poor candidate by any objective measure, manage to stay within one point for 30 weeks and within two points for 43 weeks in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll–even before picking Palin as his running mate?
Authenticity.
Obama should win this year–he should win handily. I don’t think he will. The post-mortem will be one word.
Authenticity.
Comment by Mick Stockinger — September 24, 2008 @ 9:23 am
Mick,
You really seem to have fallen for your own bullshit.
It is all politics. It is all inauthentic. It is all about positioning and pandering.
There. Are. No. Good. Guys.
You’re so enamored with your party that you really think your side’s politicians are virtuous and “authentic”. How quaint.
Comment by Jeremy Manning — September 24, 2008 @ 9:39 am